2018 Midterms: Ending Analysis

If latest estimates are correct, Democrats will pick up 28 House seats. This is the largest net gain for either party in 8 years, and the best Democratic gain since 2006. The “blue wave” materialized in the House if anywhere. The House is the most democratic body being constituted of local, popular-vote elections. Noting this and that the gains were made almost exclusively in suburbs across the country, suburban Americans are joining urban dwellers to resoundingly reject Donald Trump’s agenda and persona.

The Senate tells a different story but not paradoxical. Republicans picked off the 3(?) lowest hanging fruit on the Democratic side. 2010 saw liberals win even in ruby red states, so naturally their re-elections were far from guaranteed. We saw this coming way back before 2016 even. This result tells us that the red states have held on to Donald Trump’s platform.

What does all this mean for 2020 and Trump’s re-election effort? If the election were today with these results extrapolated to a presidential election, I would point you to the Rust Belt. Iowa, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (all Trump 2016 states) saw suburbs flip to Democratic. Michigan and possibly Wisconsin will flip Governors to blue as well. This is the region that carried Trump to victory. If Democrats turn out again in 2020 like today, Trump will have a much more difficult time in the Midwest and, thus, nationally.

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